Supply Chain News Roundup: Economic Data Likely Won’t Move Interest Rate

After mixed economic news in February — including positive data in Institute for Supply Management^®’s (ISM^®) Manufacturing PMI^® and Services PMI^® reports — the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to approve an interest rate cut this month, according to two Comerica Bank analysts.

Comerica chief economist Bill Adams and senior economist Waran Bhahirethan wrote in a memo to clients and investors that those mixed economic signals were released before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have clouded the economic outlook.

The federal consumer price index (CPI) for February and the core CPI that excludes food and energy, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will also not reflect the impacts of Middle East hostilities. However, data out later in March — including the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index — will, the economists noted.

“Sentiment likely retreated from February as the headlines and rising gas prices pushed inflation expectations higher,” Adams and Bhahirethan wrote.

The Manufacturing PMI^® (52.4 percent) was in expansion for a second straight month in February as demand indicators held up, and the Services PMI^® reading of 56.1 percent was the highest since July 2022.

In contrast, the February federal jobs report surprised economists with its weakness. Payroll employment fell by 92,000, with losses occurring across the manufacturing and services sectors, including in such industries as hospitality, health care, construction and administrative services. The unemployment rate rose slightly, to 4.4 percent.

While some analysts have suggested that complicates the Fed’s traditional objectives of low inflation and full employment, the Comerica economists suggest the interest-rate call won’t be a difficult one, especially with energy prices likely to elevate inflation.

“The Fed will worry about this weak report, but other data suggest it overstates February’s weakness,” Adams and Bhahirethan wrote, noting the PMI^® data. They conclude, “The Fed began the year expecting tailwinds from interest rate cuts, tax cuts and higher government spending. The February jobs report will make them reassess that outlook but doesn’t provide enough evidence to rewrite it.”

February ISM^® Board of Directors Meeting Summary

The ISM Board of Directors and ISM Finance Committee held meetings February 18-19 in Austin, Texas.

The Finance Committee shared with the Board summaries of (1) an auditor’s report of financial results for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025, (2) retirement plans fiduciary oversight, (3) performance of invested reserve funds and (4) the financial forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal year (FY).

Also, the Board:

• Heard readouts from the Finance, Nominating & Governance and Human Resources & Compensation committees.
• Reviewed progress on ISM current FY strategies, including a status report on CAPS Research, the Tempe, Arizona-based organization in strategic partnership with ISM and Arizona State University.
• A review of ISM’s enterprise risk management.

Copies of meeting minutes and appendixes are available at ismworld.org — select “Governance” — within 90 days of the meeting. They are also available by emailing Kristen Moreno at kmoreno@ismworld.org.

The next meeting of the ISM Board of Directors is on April 26, during the ISM World 2026 Annual Conference in Denver.

Robi H. Bendorf, CPSM, C.P.M.: 1944-2026

Longtime supply management executive and consultant as well as ISM instructor Robi H. Bendorf, CPSM, C.P.M., died on February 8 after a five-year battle with cancer. He was 81.

Bendorf had nearly four decades of purchasing and sales experience at Westinghouse Trading Company and the Bendorf & Associates consultancy.

He was born in an attic in Holland in 1944 while his family was in hiding to escape Nazi persecution. Bendorf and his family emigrated to the U.S., settling in Texas before spending his later years in Pennsylvania.

With a spirit of teaching and volunteerism, Bendorf instructed seminars around the world during his career and in retirement, including many in the U.S. for ISM.

“All of those people have taught me things,” Bendorf said in 2020. “I really enjoy the process of giving it back. I feel like there’s a rare opportunity for me to give back what so many people have given me. So, that’s what I enjoy about teaching.”

Bendorf is survived by his wife of 59 years, Mary; daughter Emily and son Tim; and four grandchildren.

(Top image credit: Getty Images/MustafaU)