The Iran war is not just a price issue. Supply disruption – shortage – is a growing threat, and tariffs add to it!

Presentation Overview

•        A year of expected moderation changed overnight at the end of February. All politics and pontificating aside, there are real consequences for purchasers. John Anton, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, will discuss the big themes and the specific issues.

•        Closure of the Straight of Hormuz not only cuts off oil, but also natural gas, sulfur, helium, and about 20% of all aluminum normally consumed in the United States.

•        The impacts are obvious but also second order can be serious.

·         Natural gas and oil hit chemicals. Sulfur hits fertilizer – so food – as well as up to 20% of copper refining. Helium hits microprocessor manufacturing and mig welding.

•        There are nuances. This spike is not (so far) as bad as in 2021-22, but during that time global demand was booming. The ramifications on the macroeconomic outlook will be discussed

·         The impact is less in the US than almost anywhere, because we are energy independent. Asia, Europe, and Africa are under the greatest peril.

·         Every dollar, yen, yuan, rupee, euro, lira that goes to higher priced food and energy, does not go to buying cars, appliances, or vacations.

·         So far supply chains have been able to cope through inventory drawdown. But what happens when inventory runs out?

The big issues will be discussed, but the heart of the presentation is “What does this mean for me as a supply chain/purchasing professional?

ISM-Twin Cities: July Meeting - S&P Global