Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7%
October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report
New Orders Contracting
Production Contracting
Employment Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Contracting
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower delivery performance for the third consecutive month after one month in ‘faster’ territory, which was preceded by seven consecutive months in ‘slower’ territory. The reading of 54.2 percent is up 1.6 percentage points from the 52.6 percent recorded in September. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent, down 1.9 percentage points compared to September’s reading of 47.7 percent.
“The New Export Orders Index reading of 44.5 percent is 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 43 percent registered in September. The Imports Index registered 45.4 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than September’s reading of 44.7 percent.”
Spence continues, “In October, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with contractions in production and inventories leading to the 0.4-percentage point decrease of the Manufacturing PMI®. A chain reaction of one-month index improvements started with New Orders in August and flowed to Production in September. In October, it manifested in a 1.7-percentage point increase in the Backlog of Orders Index. These short gains have not appeared to translate into sustained growth for the sector, a reflection of continuing economic uncertainty.
“All of the four demand indicators (New Orders, New Export Orders, Backlog of Orders, and Customers’ Inventories indexes) improved, although they are still in contraction territory. The Customers’ Inventories Index contracted at a slower rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.
“Regarding output, production deteriorated and employment contracted at a slower pace, as 67 percent of panelists indicated that managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring.
“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports), are mixed, with the Supplier Deliveries Index indicating slower deliveries, the Inventories Index contracting at a faster rate, and the Prices Index continuing to indicate pricing increases, but at a slower rate. The Imports Index contracted at a slower pace.
“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 58 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in October, down from 67 percent in September, however; the percent of GDP in strong contraction (registering a composite PMI® of 45 percent or lower), is at 41 percent, up 13 percent from September. The share of sector GDP with a PMI® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded in October,” says Spence.
The six manufacturing industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The 12 industries reporting contraction in October — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
- “Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariff landscape.” (Chemical Products)
- “Decrease in domestic demand for finished products has resulted in slower manufacturing and an increase of raw material in inventory.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- “In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- “Sales continue to underperform in our automotive OEM and industrial divisions. Our aerospace and automotive aftermarket are the only areas performing slightly above budget. This is the third month of lower-than-expected sales, and the remainder of the year outlook is not looking better. Sales are expected to be slightly less than in 2024.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.” (Machinery)
- “The commercial vehicle (CV) market remains depressed as customers continue to delay vehicle purchases. Uncertainty in price and transportation demand remains the center of attention. U.S. trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines. The CV industry is now bracing for the next round of tariffs focused on commercials vehicles, scheduled to begin on November 1.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.” (Machinery)
- “The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.” (Chemical Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
October 2025
| Index | Series Index Oct |
Series Index Sep |
Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend* (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI® | 48.7 | 49.1 | -0.4 | Contracting | Faster | 8 |
| New Orders | 49.4 | 48.9 | +0.5 | Contracting | Slower | 2 |
| Production | 48.2 | 51.0 | -2.8 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Employment | 46.0 | 45.3 | +0.7 | Contracting | Slower | 9 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 54.2 | 52.6 | +1.6 | Slowing | Faster | 3 |
| Inventories | 45.8 | 47.7 | -1.9 | Contracting | Faster | 6 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 43.9 | 43.7 | +0.2 | Too Low | Slower | 13 |
| Prices | 58.0 | 61.9 | -3.9 | Increasing | Slower | 13 |
| Backlog of Orders | 47.9 | 46.2 | +1.7 | Contracting | Slower | 37 |
| New Export Orders | 44.5 | 43.0 | +1.5 | Contracting | Slower | 8 |
| Imports | 45.4 | 44.7 | +0.7 | Contracting | Slower | 7 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 66 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Contracting | Faster | 8 | |||
ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (23); Brass; Copper (4); Copper Products (4); Electronic Components (2); Precious Metals; Steel — Stainless (8); Steel Products* (8); and Zinc.
Commodities Down in Price
Polypropylene Resin (2); Steel (3); Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel — Scrap; Steel Products*; and Transportation.
Commodities in Short Supply
Capital Equipment; Critical Minerals; Electrical Components (4); Electronic Components (8); Labor (2); and Rare Earth Magnets (2).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
OCTOBER 2025 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month after two months of expansion preceded by 26 months of contraction. “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the 49.1 percent recorded in September. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, one (Supplier Deliveries) is in expansion territory, one fewer than in September. The Production Index returned to contraction territory, losing 2.8 percentage points. The New Orders Index remained in contraction, the Employment Index increased but remained in contraction territory, and the Inventories Index had a faster rate of contraction. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in October,” says Spence. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the October Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 66th straight month after contracting in April 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the October reading (48.7 percent) corresponds to a change of plus 1.8 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Spence.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
| Month | |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 48.7 |
| Sep 2025 | 49.1 |
| Aug 2025 | 48.7 |
| Jul 2025 | 48.0 |
| Jun 2025 | 49.0 |
| May 2025 | 48.5 |
| Month | |
|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | 48.7 |
| Mar 2025 | 49.0 |
| Feb 2025 | 50.3 |
| Jan 2025 | 50.9 |
| Dec 2024 | 49.2 |
| Nov 2024 | 48.4 |
50.9
48.0
New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index contracted for the second consecutive month in October after one month in expansion, registering 49.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point compared to September’s figure of 48.9 percent. This reading is above the 12-month average (49.1 percent) for the New Orders Index, which hasn’t indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, one (Transportation Equipment) reported increased new orders. For every positive comment about new orders, there were 1.7 comments expressing concern about near-term demand, driven primarily by tariff costs and uncertainty,” says Spence. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in October are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting a decline in new orders in October, in order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
| New Orders | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 20.4 | 53.6 | 26.0 | -5.6 | 49.4 |
| Sep 2025 | 18.6 | 56.5 | 24.9 | -6.3 | 48.9 |
| Aug 2025 | 24.7 | 52.6 | 22.7 | +2.0 | 51.4 |
| Jul 2025 | 18.8 | 55.3 | 25.9 | -7.1 | 47.1 |
Production
The Production Index contracted in October, registering 48.2 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the September reading of 51 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, one (Transportation Equipment) reported increased production. Panelists had a 1-to-1.5 ratio of positive to negative comments regarding output,” says Spence. An index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The four industries reporting growth in production during the month of October are: Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 12 industries reporting a decrease in production in October, in order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.
| Production | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 17.3 | 60.7 | 22.0 | -4.7 | 48.2 |
| Sep 2025 | 19.0 | 60.5 | 20.5 | -1.5 | 51.0 |
| Aug 2025 | 16.6 | 62.3 | 21.1 | -4.5 | 47.8 |
| Jul 2025 | 20.1 | 60.7 | 19.2 | +0.9 | 51.4 |
Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 46 percent in October, 0.7 percentage point higher than September’s reading of 45.3 percent. “The index posted its ninth consecutive month of contraction after expanding in January, with seven straight months of contraction before that. Since May 2022, the Employment Index has contracted in 35 of 42 months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported higher levels of employment in October. For every comment on hiring, there were 3.4 on reducing head counts. Companies continued to focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand. Layoffs and not filling open positions remain the main head-count management strategies,” says Spence. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in October: Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 13 industries reporting a decrease in employment in October, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.
| Employment | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 13.1 | 64.6 | 22.3 | -9.2 | 46.0 |
| Sep 2025 | 11.1 | 64.5 | 24.4 | -13.3 | 45.3 |
| Aug 2025 | 9.4 | 68.2 | 22.4 | -13.0 | 43.8 |
| Jul 2025 | 12.6 | 62.4 | 25.0 | -12.4 | 43.4 |
Supplier Deliveries*
For the third consecutive month, delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in October, after one month of faster deliveries preceded by seven months of index readings in “slowing” territory. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.2 percent, a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 52.6 percent reported in September. Of the six big industries, five (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported slower supplier deliveries. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The 12 manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in October — in the following order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The only industry reporting faster supplier deliveries in October is Paper Products.
| Supplier Deliveries | % Slower | % Same | % Faster | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 11.6 | 85.2 | 3.2 | +8.4 | 54.2 |
| Sep 2025 | 11.2 | 82.7 | 6.1 | +5.1 | 52.6 |
| Aug 2025 | 9.2 | 84.2 | 6.6 | +2.6 | 51.3 |
| Jul 2025 | 8.7 | 81.1 | 10.2 | -1.5 | 49.3 |
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent in October, down 1.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 47.7 percent in September. “Of the six big industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded in October,” says Spence. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the five reporting higher inventories in October are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting lower inventories in October — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.
| Inventories | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 13.2 | 65.1 | 21.7 | -8.5 | 45.8 |
| Sep 2025 | 16.0 | 63.7 | 20.3 | -4.3 | 47.7 |
| Aug 2025 | 19.5 | 61.9 | 18.6 | +0.9 | 49.4 |
| Jul 2025 | 15.2 | 67.2 | 17.6 | -2.4 | 48.9 |
Customers' Inventories*
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index remained in “too low” territory in October, with a reading of 43.9 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point compared to the reading of 43.7 percent in September. “Customers’ inventory levels in October continued to contract but moved a slight amount toward ‘about right’ territory,” says Spence. (For more information about the Customers’ Inventories Index, see the “Data and Method of Presentation” section below.)
The three industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in October are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 10 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in October, in order, are: Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Paper Products.
| Customers' Inventories | % Reporting | % Too High | % About Right | % Too Low | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 75 | 11.8 | 64.1 | 24.1 | -12.3 | 43.9 |
| Sep 2025 | 73 | 10.5 | 66.3 | 23.2 | -12.7 | 43.7 |
| Aug 2025 | 74 | 9.5 | 70.1 | 20.4 | -10.9 | 44.6 |
| Jul 2025 | 71 | 10.5 | 70.3 | 19.2 | -8.7 | 45.7 |
Prices*
The ISM® Prices Index registered 58 percent in October, decreasing 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month’s reading of 61.9 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 13th straight month (though at a slower rate compared to September). The Prices Index has increased 7.7 percentage points over the past 12 months. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five: Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products) have reported price increases in October. “The Prices Index reading continues to be driven by increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, as well as tariffs applied to many imported goods. Higher prices were reported by 27.3 percent of respondents in October, down from 32.5 percent in September and 49.2 percent in April, which was the highest level since June 2022 (65.2 percent),” says Spence. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In October, the 14 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The two industries that reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Paper Products.
| Prices | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 27.3 | 61.4 | 11.3 | +16.0 | 58.0 |
| Sep 2025 | 32.5 | 58.8 | 8.7 | +23.8 | 61.9 |
| Aug 2025 | 33.5 | 60.4 | 6.1 | +27.4 | 63.7 |
| Jul 2025 | 35.4 | 58.8 | 5.8 | +29.6 | 64.8 |
Backlog of Orders*
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the September reading of 46.2 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 37th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion that ended in September 2022. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, two (Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported expansion in order backlogs in October. “Ongoing contraction in the Backlog of Orders index means that trade issues and other geopolitical tensions are still at play. Significant improvement shouldn’t be expected until those issues begin to recede,” says Spence.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the six that reported growth in order backlogs in October, in order, are: Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting lower backlogs in October — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
| Backlog of Orders | % Reporting | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 90 | 15.7 | 64.4 | 19.9 | -4.2 | 47.9 |
| Sep 2025 | 89 | 17.2 | 58.0 | 24.8 | -7.6 | 46.2 |
| Aug 2025 | 91 | 16.3 | 56.7 | 27.0 | -10.7 | 44.7 |
| Jul 2025 | 89 | 18.3 | 56.9 | 24.8 | -6.5 | 46.8 |
New Export Orders*
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index contracted in October, registering 44.5 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from September’s reading of 43 percent. “Export orders contracted for the eighth consecutive month after growing in January and February. That brief period of expansion followed an ‘unchanged’ status (a reading of 50 percent) in December, preceded by six straight months of contraction. Ongoing trade friction is still resulting in diminished demand, as evidenced by the 57 percent of panelists’ comments citing soft demand due to tariffs and uncertain U.S. economic policy,” says Spence.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, only one (Wood Products) reported growth in new export orders in October. The 11 industries that reported a decrease in new export orders in October — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Six industries reported no change in new export orders in October.
| New Export Orders | % Reporting | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 72 | 10.5 | 68.0 | 21.5 | -11.0 | 44.5 |
| Sep 2025 | 71 | 7.2 | 71.5 | 21.3 | -14.1 | 43.0 |
| Aug 2025 | 71 | 11.3 | 72.6 | 16.1 | -4.8 | 47.6 |
| Jul 2025 | 71 | 7.5 | 77.2 | 15.3 | -7.8 | 46.1 |
Imports*
ISM®’s Imports Index remained in contraction for the seventh month in October after expanding for three straight months. The October figure of 45.4 percent is an increase of 0.7 percentage point compared to the reading of 44.7 percent reported in September. “Imports continuing to contract indicate ongoing lower levels of demand due to tariff pricing,” says Spence.
The only industry to report higher imports in October was Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The nine industries that reported lower volumes of imports in October — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. Eight industries reported no change in imports.
| Imports | % Reporting | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 84 | 10.4 | 69.9 | 19.7 | -9.3 | 45.4 |
| Sep 2025 | 84 | 9.9 | 69.6 | 20.5 | -10.6 | 44.7 |
| Aug 2025 | 84 | 9.8 | 72.4 | 17.8 | -8.0 | 46.0 |
| Jul 2025 | 86 | 13.3 | 68.5 | 18.2 | -4.9 | 47.6 |
*The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in October was 168 days, a decrease of 2 days compared to September. The average lead time in October for Production Materials was 80 days, a decrease of one day compared to September. The average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 47 days, a decrease of two days compared to September.
Percent Reporting
| Capital Expenditures | Hand-to-Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year + | Average Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31 | 26 | 168 |
| Sep 2025 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 27 | 170 |
| Aug 2025 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 28 | 173 |
| Jul 2025 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 29 | 173 |
Percent Reporting
| Production Materials | Hand-to-Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year + | Average Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 10 | 26 | 23 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 80 |
| Sep 2025 | 9 | 25 | 23 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 81 |
| Aug 2025 | 9 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 84 |
| Jul 2025 | 9 | 28 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 85 |
Percent Reporting
| MRO Supplies | Hand-to-Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year + | Average Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 30 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 47 |
| Sep 2025 | 28 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 49 |
| Aug 2025 | 32 | 31 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 48 |
| Jul 2025 | 31 | 35 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 44 |
About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of October 2025.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Panel is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2023 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2024, as released on December 19, 2024), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For nine indicators (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. For Customers’ Inventories, respondents report their assessment of their customers’ stock levels of respondent companies' products this month (rather than last month): too high, about right, and too low. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.3 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.3 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. For the Customers’ Inventories Index, numerically, a reading: above 50 percent is "too high," equal to 50 percent is “about right,” and below 50 percent is "too low." However, in practice and in the context of other data, customers’ inventories may be considered to be “about right” if the diffusion index is between 52 percent (the high side of about right) and 48 percent (the low side of about right).
The ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Panel respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.
The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.
ISM PMI® Content
The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM®”) PMI® Reports, formerly Report On Business®, (Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital reports) (“ISM PMI®") contain information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM PMI® Content"). ISM PMI® Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM PMI® Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM PMI® Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM PMI® Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM PMI® Content.
Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM PMI® Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.
You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM PMI® Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.
ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM PMI® Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM PMI® Content or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the ISM PMI®. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, and Hospital PMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.
About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the strategy and practice of integrated, end-to-end supply chain management through leading edge data-driven resources, community, and education to empower individuals, create organizational value and to drive competitive advantage. ISM’s vision is to foster a prosperous, sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® PMI® Reports (formerly Report On Business®), its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM® PMI® Reports — Manufacturing and Services — are two of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.
The full text version of the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report is posted on ISM®’s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month.
The next ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report featuring October 2025 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, December 1, 2025.
*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
Join the Survey Panel
Learn MorePlease note that you or the organization you represent may not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index or any portion of the ISM® PMI® Reports – Manufacturing (PMI®) or Services (PMI®) content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM PMI® Content can be made by contacting us in writing at:
ISM Research
Institute for Supply Management
C/O Corporate Services
309 W. Elliot Road ,
Suite 113
Tempe, AZ 85284
or by emailing us at (Subject: Content Request)
corpinfo@ismworld.org