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ISM® PMI® Reports Roundup: November Manufacturing

December 01, 2025
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By Dan Zeiger
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Over the next month, many purchasing and supply management professionals will likely spend time away from work partaking in their favorite holiday movies. On the job, however, the streaming is stuck on “Groundhog Day.”

The ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report for November revealed that the script from recent months remains the same: Tepid consumer demand, sluggish employment and elevated prices that are the result of — or exacerbated by — U.S. trade and tariffs policy. The composite PMI® reading of 48.2 percent reflected that reality.

And there’s no rewrite pending, said Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. She told a conference call of reporters on Monday, “The heart of it is tariffs. We do not see anything on the horizon that will turn this ship.”

With a looming decision by the U.S. Supreme Court that might or might not slow tariffs from the Trump administration, Spence said that 10 months of data is clear: Current trade policy has not boosted the manufacturing sector. In many ways, it has had the opposite effect.

The November/December issue of Inside Supply Management® includes a feature article, “The Mixed Reshoring Bag,” that details how many companies are hesitant to shift sourcing and production to the U.S., with economic uncertainty one of the biggest reasons. Manufacturing Business Survey panelists echoed such sentiment in November, indicating it’s still cheaper to source overseas — even with tariffs — given them no incentive to find domestic suppliers.

“The purpose of the tariffs was to drive manufacturing back to the U.S., but that is not happening,” Spence said. “One panelist mentioned that all the tariffs are doing is eroding margins.”

Such recent events as “interest-rate drops and AI (artificial intelligence) pops,” as Spence put it, have not moved the manufacturing needle. Panelists also had little to say about the impact of the recent federal government shutdown.

“Those things didn’t seem to be on folks’ mind because of the overwhelming nature of the tariffs,” she said. “I don’t think many people expected it, but this is where we are. Ten months in, and companies are still frozen in place with their decision-making.”

The inertia was manifested in the subindex data:

  • The New Orders Index registered 47.4 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to October.
  • The Supplier Deliveries Index moved into contraction (or “faster”) territory, which typically indicates low demand and a slowing economy; Spence said there’s little reason to believe it’s the result of more efficient logistics operations.
  • The Backlog of Orders Index decreased 3.9 percentage points in November, falling to 44 percent.
  • The Prices Index reading of 58.5 percent (up 0.5 percentage point) was lower than in recent months — it registered 63.7 percent in August — but core products steel and aluminum remain nagging drivers of inflation.
  • The Employment Index registered 44 percent, down 2 percentage points as companies continued to manage head counts commensurate to demand.

At the very least, Spence said, the New Orders Index needs to increase for three consecutive months before there is sustainable production growth — as well as declarations of a potential manufacturing recovery.

During ISM’s LinkedIn Live broadcast on Monday, Spence cited sobering numbers from such consumer sentiment indexes as those from the University of Michigan and The Conference Board as signs that, for at least the near future, companies and supply managers will be saying that they’ve seen this movie before.

“It’s not a good sign,” Spence said on LinkedIn. “We do get tired of giving not great news, but we are going to give the news that is based in facts and data, and this is what’s happening.”

The ISM® PMI® Reports roundup:

Barron’s: U.S. Manufacturing Sluggishness Persists in November. “It’s been a terrible stretch for manufacturers. … So far, investors have shrugged off most tariff news, believing things will get better eventually. They’ve been waiting for years.”

Bloomberg: U.S. Factory Activity Shrinks by the Most in Four Months. “The survey suggests the nation’s manufacturing base remains bogged down by trade policy uncertainty and elevated production costs. The ISM index of prices paid for materials picked up for the first time in five months and is about 8 points higher than a year ago. Customer demand has largely been uninspiring as well.”

CNBC: ISM Manufacturing Index Misses Forecast for November. “We have some surprises here,” analyst Rick Santelli said. “On the ISM PMI®, the Manufacturing for November of 48.2 percent is definitely on the light side, the lightest since July. … If we look at the New Orders (Index), a very big disappointment here: 47.4 percent, the weakest since July. Finally, on the Employment (Index), 44.0 percent, another big miss. … Sequentially, all the important numbers are lower; the only one higher is (the Prices Index), and we’d rather have that moving lower.”

Logistics Management: Manufacturing Declines for the Ninth Consecutive Month. “With 2025 officially now in the home stretch, Spence explained it is reasonable to expect current manufacturing conditions to remain intact, with the caveat that things are very likely to remain the same into 2026. The main reason for that, she observed, is that a growth catalyst, of sorts, to drive confidence for end users to order from U.S. companies remains missing.”

Manufacturing Dive: Tariffs Remain Heart of Uncertainty. “(A) comment from a transportation equipment manufacturer said that they’re starting to implement more permanent changes due to the tariff environment, including staff reductions, new guidance to shareholders and developing additional offshore manufacturing that would have been for U.S. export.”

MarketWatch: Manufacturers Shrink for Ninth Month in a Row, ISM Finds. “Tariffs Hurt Sales and Keep lid on Hiring. Manufacturers still play a big role in the economy, employing some 13 million people directly and many others indirectly. When they struggle, the U.S. economy is limited in how fast it can grow. The latest findings show that the economy is still being held back by tariffs.”

Reuters: U.S. Manufacturing Slump Deepens in November. “Despite subdued orders for factory goods, manufacturers paid more for inputs last month, a sign that inflation could remain elevated for a while. … Factory employment declined, likely as manufacturers continued what the ISM previously described as "accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand.”

The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Manufacturing Contracts for Ninth Straight Month. “The Trump administration has quickly dialed up tariffs on U.S. imports since April, which has in many cases made it more expensive for U.S. producers to source materials from abroad needed in their processes. Uncertainty concerning tariff levels has also weighed on manufacturers, as duty levels have fluctuated for much of the year.”

The ISM® Services PMI® Report will be unveiled on Wednesday. Also, the ISM® Supply Chain Planning Forecast (formerly the Semiannual Economic Forecast) for the manufacturing and services sectors will be released on December 16. For the most up-to-date content on the ISM® PMI® Reports, use #ISMPMI on X, formerly known as Twitter.

(Photo credit: Getty Images/Nordroden)

About the Author

Dan Zeiger

About the Author

Dan Zeiger is Senior Copy Editor/Writer for Inside Supply Management® magazine, covering topics, trends and issues relating to supply chain management.