Important Update to ISM® Projected 2024 Seasonal Factors
(Tempe, Arizona) — ISM® identified an issue that affected our 2024 projected seasonal factors. The error was swiftly rectified, and the accurate data is contained in the below tables.
Based on input from an independent expert, Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) recently announced the completion of its annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used in the monthly ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report On Business® and the monthly ISM® Services PMI® Report On Business®. Purchasing managers and economists who track these indexes will note that changes are effective with the January 2024 ISM® Manufacturing PMI®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2024, and the January 2024 ISM® Services PMI®, which will be released on February 5, 2024.
Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2024).
As in previous years, the X-13-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Services indexes for January 2021 through December 2023, as well as the 2024 projected seasonal factors. The 2024 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2025. Projected seasonal factors for 2024 are shown below.
2024 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Indexes
New Orders |
Production |
Employment |
Inventories |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-2024 | 0.922 | 0.939 | 0.982 | 0.993 |
| Feb-2024 | 1.088 | 1.042 | 1.007 | 1.057 |
| Mar-2024 | 1.071 | 1.029 | 1.013 | 1.018 |
| Apr-2024 | 1.048 | 1.040 | 1.036 | 0.975 |
| May-2024 | 1.050 | 1.018 | 1.010 | 0.994 |
| Jun-2024 | 1.013 | 1.058 | 1.012 | 0.997 |
| Jul-2024 | 0.959 | 0.986 | 1.019 | 0.987 |
| Aug-2024 | 1.016 | 1.021 | 0.990 | 1.016 |
| Sep-2024 | 0.992 | 0.964 | 0.973 | 1.013 |
| Oct-2024 | 0.971 | 1.006 | 0.997 | 1.027 |
| Nov-2024 | 0.957 | 1.014 | 0.975 | 0.980 |
| Dec-2024 | 0.923 | 0.895 | 0.987 | 0.966 |
To compute the Manufacturing PMI® Index and Subindexes:
- Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories (percent higher plus one half of the percent same or unchanged) to two decimal places and Supplier Deliveries (percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged) to two decimal places.
- Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor and round each quotient to one decimal place.
- Add all five quotients (index numbers) together and divide by five to arrive at the seasonally adjusted Manufacturing PMI® Index.
- For each of the five other subindexes, calculate the diffusion index by adding together percent higher and one half of the percent same or unchanged, then rounding that sum to two decimal places.
2024 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM® Services PMI® Indexes
| Business Activity | New Orders | Employment | Prices | |
| Jan-2024 | 0.903 | 0.916 | 0.948 | 0.987 |
| Feb-2024 | 1.004 | 1.044 | 0.969 | 1.004 |
| Mar-2024 | 1.001 | 1.014 | 1.025 | 1.031 |
| Apr-2024 | 1.056 | 1.049 | 1.016 | 1.051 |
| May-2024 | 1.004 | 1.009 | 1.010 | 1.036 |
| Jun-2024 | 1.014 | 1.017 | 1.046 | 1.022 |
| Jul-2024 | 1.013 | 0.988 | 1.012 | 0.995 |
| Aug-2024 | 1.033 | 1.034 | 0.994 | 0.977 |
| Sep-2024 | 1.019 | 1.016 | 1.024 | 0.983 |
| Oct-2024 | 0.997 | 0.982 | 0.980 | 0.997 |
| Nov-2024 | 1.040 | 1.035 | 0.989 | 0.978 |
| Dec-2024 | 0.940 | 0.924 | 0.986 | 0.938 |
To compute the Services PMI® Index and Subindexes:
- Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Business Activity, and Employment (percent higher plus one half of the percent same or unchanged) to two decimal places and Supplier Deliveries (percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged) to two decimal places.
- Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor and round each quotient to one decimal place.
- Add all four quotients (index numbers) together and divide by four to arrive at the seasonally adjusted Services PMI® index.
- For each of the six other subindexes, calculate the diffusion index by adding together percent higher and one half of the percent same or unchanged, then rounding that sum to two decimal places.
Please note that differences in rounding practices may result in computed values that differ from published values.
About ISM® Report On Business®
The ISM® Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Services ISM® Report On Business® is published monthly by Institute for Supply Management®. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months.
ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM”) Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Services) (“ISM ROB”) contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.
Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.
You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.
ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.
About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.
Please note that you or the organization you represent may not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index or any portion of the ISM® Report On Business® – Manufacturing (PMI®), Services (PMI®) and Hospital (PMI™) content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting us in writing at:
ISM Research
Institute for Supply Management
309 W. Elliot Road ,
Suite 113
Tempe, AZ 85284
or by emailing us at (Subject: Content Request)
robadmin@ismworld.org