Manufacturing PMI® at 52.8%

August 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

New Orders and Employment Expanding
Production and Backlogs Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing at a Slower Rate
Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing at a Slower Rate; Exports Contracting; Imports Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in August, with the overall economy achieving a 27th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The August Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 percent, the same reading as recorded in July. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 27th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. For a second straight month, the Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since June 2020, when it registered 52.4 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.3 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 48 percent recorded in July. The Production Index reading of 50.4 percent is a 3.1-percentage point decrease compared to July’s figure of 53.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, down 7.5 percentage points compared to the July figure of 60 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 53 percent, 1.7 percentage points above the July reading of 51.3 percent. After three straight months of contraction, the Employment Index expanded at 54.2 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the 49.9 percent recorded in July. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 55.1 percent is 0.1 percentage point lower than the July figure of 55.2 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.1 percent, 4.2 percentage points lower than the July reading of 57.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index contracted at 49.4 percent, down 3.2 percentage points compared to July’s figure of 52.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in expansion territory at 52.5 percent, but 1.9 percentage points below the July reading of 54.4 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continues expanding at rates similar to the prior two months. New order rates returned to expansion levels, supplier deliveries remain at appropriate tension levels and prices softened again, reflecting movement toward supply/demand balance. According to Business Survey Committee respondents’ comments, companies continued to hire at strong rates in August, with few indications of layoffs, hiring freezes or head-count reductions through attrition. Panelists reported lower rates of quits, a positive trend. Prices expansion eased dramatically in August, which — when coupled with lead times easing — should bring buyers back into the market, improving new order levels. Sentiment remained optimistic regarding demand, with five positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists continue to express unease about a softening economy, with 18 percent of comments noting concern about order book contraction. Twelve percent of panelists’ comments reflect growing worries about total supply chain inventory. Demand increased, with the (1) New Orders Index returning to expansion, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at a low level, retreating slightly compared to July and (3) Backlog of Orders Index increasing its rate of growth. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) improved during the period, with a combined positive 1.2-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index returned to expansion after three months of contraction, and the Production Index lost ground but remained in growth territory. With the gains in hiring and fewer supplier delivery issues, production expansion should improve in September. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — continued to constrain production expansion, but to a lesser extent compared to July. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated deliveries slowed at a slower rate in August, while the Inventories Index grew at a slower rate as well. The Imports Index expanded in August for the third consecutive month, but at a slower rate compared to July. The Prices Index increased for the 27th consecutive month, at a much slower rate compared to July.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, five — Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in August.

“Manufacturing performed well for the 27th straight month. With (1) supplier delivery performance recording its fourth straight month of improvement, (2) price increase growth slowing significantly for the second consecutive month, (3) hiring and total employment both positive and expanding and (4) lead times easing across all three categories of purchasing activity, the sector is at or approaching supply/demand equilibrium,” says Fiore.

Ten manufacturing industries reported growth in August, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries reporting contraction in August compared to July, in the following order are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Demand from customers is still strong, but much of that is because there is still fear of not getting product due to constraints. They are stocking up. There will be a reckoning in the market when the music stops, and everyone’s inventories are bloated.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • “Sales in target business softening month-over-month, down 12 percent by revenue. Inventory days are increasing.” [Chemical Products]
  • “Strong sales continue. The impact of the chip shortage is slowing, and the decreasing COVID-19 resurgence in Asia is now affecting production more than chips.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • “Supply in most groups is slowly increasing, but demand appears to be outpacing — causing pricing to either stabilize or increase.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]
  • “Inventories are far too high, and we are on pins and needles to see how quickly and at what magnitude our busy season begins. We will start seeing that in the next few weeks.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • “Continue to struggle with electronic component shortages. Several smaller machine shops are (manufacturing) the pacing item for our production due to lack of direct labor machinists.” [Machinery]
  • “Overall, I have seen much improvement in the availability of raw materials. However, trucking issues continued, and production capacity within some industries remains tight. I have growing concerns that as cement and mineral companies run ‘all out’ to meet demand, we will see more downtime due to maintenance (issues).” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
  • “Demand is softening; however, we are continuing to produce to replenish inventory.” [Primary Metals]
  • “Orders are still strong through the end of the year, but there is a feeling that customers may start pulling back on orders, either cancelling them or pushing them into 2023.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
  • “Business conditions are good, and demand is strong. Securing enough raw material supply to keep up is still a challenge.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

Manufacturing at a Glance
August 2022

Index Series Index Aug Series Index Jul Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend* (Months)
Manufacturing PMI® 52.8 52.8 0.0 Growing Same 27
New Orders 51.3 48.0 +3.3 Growing From Contracting 1
Production 50.4 53.5 -3.1 Growing Slower 27
Employment 54.2 49.9 +4.3 Growing From Contracting 1
Supplier Deliveries 55.1 55.2 -0.1 Slowing Slower 78
Inventories 53.1 57.3 -4.2 Growing Slower 13
Customers’ Inventories 38.9 39.5 -0.6 Too Low Faster 71
Prices 52.5 60.0 -7.5 Increasing Slower 27
Backlog of Orders 53.0 51.3 +1.7 Growing Faster 26
New Export Orders 49.4 52.6 -3.2 Contracting From Growing 1
Imports 52.5 54.4 -1.9 Growing Slower 3
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Same 27
Manufacturing Sector Growing Same 27
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY


Commodities Up in Price


Caustic Soda (6); Corrugate (7); Electrical Components (21); Electronic Components (21); Freight (22); Hydraulic Components; Natural Gas (14); Paper; Plastic Resins* (8); Rubber Based Products (13); Steel Products* (24); and Styrene Based Plastics.


Commodities Down in Price


Aluminum (4); Copper (2); Corn Products; Crude Oil; Freight; Gasoline; Plastic Resins* (3); Polypropylene; Steel (4); Steel — Carbon (2); Steel — Hot Rolled (4); Steel — Scrap; Steel — Stainless; and Steel Products* (2).


Commodities in Short Supply


Adhesives and Paints (2); Electrical Components (23); Electronic Components (21); Hydraulic Components (4); Plastic Resins (4); Rubber Based Products (3); Semiconductors (21); and Wire Harnesses.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.


AUGUST 2022 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


Manufacturing PMI®

The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in August, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.8 percent, the same reading recorded in July. “The Manufacturing PMI® continued to indicate sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in August. All five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® (New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) were in growth territory. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, five — Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in August. The Production Index decreased 3.1 percentage points but remained in expansion territory. The Supplier Deliveries Index slowed at a slightly slower rate while the Inventories Index grew at a slower rate, indicating at least a slight easing of supply chain congestion. Nine of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of ‘too low’ for the Customers’ Inventories Index is considered a positive for future production,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the August Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in August for the 27th consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for August (52.8 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS


Month
Manufacturing PMI®
Aug 2022 52.8
Jul 2022 52.8
Jun 2022 53.0
May 2022 56.1
Apr 2022 55.4
Mar 2022 57.1
Month
Manufacturing PMI®
Feb 2022 58.6
Jan 2022 57.6
Dec 2021 58.8
Nov 2021 60.6
Oct 2021 60.8
Sep 2021 60.5
57.0
60.8
52.8

New Orders

ISM®’s New Orders Index increased in August by 3.3 percentage points to 51.3 percent compared to 48 percent reported in July. This indicates that new order volumes returned to expansion after two months of contraction. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only two — Computer & Electronic Products and Transportation Equipment — increased new orders at a moderate level. Lead times remained elevated but August saw a decrease across capital expenditures, raw materials and maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) supplies. With prices easing, more buyers should resume order placements as we close the third quarter,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, six reported growth in new orders in August, in the following order: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Eight industries reported a decline in new orders in August, in the following order: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

New Orders % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 17.5 63.1 19.4 -1.9 51.3
Jul 2022 17.2 63.0 19.8 -2.6 48.0
Jun 2022 17.8 65.1 17.1 +0.7 49.2
May 2022 28.2 58.5 13.3 +14.9 55.1

Production

The Production Index registered 50.4 percent in August, 3.1 percentage points lower than the July reading of 53.5 percent, indicating growth for the 27th consecutive month. “Of the top six industries, three — Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery — expanded in August. Materials availability and the labor pool continue to recover; with quits easing and supplier deliveries improving, production should expand at a faster rate in September,” says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The six industries reporting growth in production during the month of August — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in production in August — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Production % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 17.6 65.4 17.0 +0.6 50.4
Jul 2022 24.9 58.5 16.6 +8.3 53.5
Jun 2022 27.4 60.9 11.7 +15.7 54.9
May 2022 23.9 59.2 16.9 +7.0 54.2

Employment

ISM®’s Employment Index registered 54.2 percent in August, 4.3 percentage points above the July reading of 49.9 percent. “The index returned to expansion territory after three months of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery) expanded. Labor management activity improved in August: A larger share of comments (11 percent in August, up from 7 percent in July) noted greater hiring ease, and among respondents whose companies are hiring, 18 percent expressed difficulty in filling positions, down from 35 percent in July. Turnover rates eased, with 33 percent of comments citing backfill and retirement issues, a decrease from 39 percent in July. Employment gains in August should translate into stronger expansion in production growth in September,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, nine reported employment growth in August, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in August — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Employment % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 19.3 68.3 12.4 +6.9 54.2
Jul 2022 22.0 59.4 18.6 +3.4 49.9
Jun 2022 17.9 63.7 18.4 -0.5 47.3
May 2022 21.8 55.4 22.8 -1.0 49.6

Supplier Deliveries*

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in August, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the 55.2 percent reported in July. Of the top six manufacturing industries, four (Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported slower deliveries. “This indicates the best supplier deliveries performance since January 2020, prior to the full onset of the coronavirus pandemic, when the index registered 53 percent. Deliveries slowed at a slightly slower rate compared to the previous month — 19.6 percent of panelists reported slower deliveries in August, compared to 21.4 percent in July. Panelists’ comments again indicate that suppliers, despite their labor problems, performed better in August compared to previous months,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Nine manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in August, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. Four industries reported faster supplier deliveries in August as compared to July: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Supplier Deliveries % Slower % Same % Faster Net Index
Aug 2022 19.6 71.0 9.4 +10.2 55.1
Jul 2022 21.4 67.6 11.0 +10.4 55.2
Jun 2022 27.4 59.8 12.8 +14.6 57.3
May 2022 37.1 57.2 5.7 +31.4 65.7

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 53.1 percent in August, 4.2 percentage points lower than the 57.3 percent reported for July. “Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slower rate compared to July. Of the six big manufacturing industries, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) grew manufacturing raw material inventories in August. Twelve percent of general comments indicate that panelists are acting aggressively to manage current and future manufacturing inventories spread across the supply chain. This is due to slowing rates of new orders — outside of normal lead times — and many suppliers insisting on ‘no cancel, no defer’ order acceptance in the last 18 months, which are greater supply management concerns,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the eight reporting higher inventories in August — in the following order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products. The only industry reporting contracting inventories in August is Paper Products. Nine industries reported no change in inventories in August as compared to July.

Inventories % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 23.2 62.9 13.9 +9.3 53.1
Jul 2022 25.5 61.8 12.7 +12.8 57.3
Jun 2022 25.4 59.8 14.8 +10.6 56.0
May 2022 24.3 62.5 13.2 +11.1 55.9

Customers' Inventories*

ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 38.9 percent in August, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 39.5 percent reported for July, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 71st month in a row, a positive for future production growth. The index registered below 40 percent for the 25th consecutive month,” says Fiore.

Three industries (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Wood Products) reported customers’ inventories as too high in August. The 11 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low— listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

Customers' Inventories % Reporting % Too High % About Right % Too Low Net Index
Aug 2022 75 12.2 53.4 34.4 -22.2 38.9
Jul 2022 78 12.4 54.2 33.4 -21.0 39.5
Jun 2022 75 11.1 48.1 40.8 -29.7 35.2
May 2022 75 12.8 39.7 47.5 -34.7 32.7

Prices*

The ISM® Prices Index registered 52.5 percent in August, 7.5 percentage points lower compared to the July reading of 60 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 27th consecutive month, at a much slower rate. This is the first Prices Index reading below 60 percent since August 2020 (59.5 percent). Over the past five months, the index has decreased 34.6 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. “The slowing in price increases is being driven by (1) relaxation in the energy markets, (2) softening in the copper, steel, aluminum and corrugate markets and (3) continuing sluggishness in chemical demand. Notably, 26.7 percent of respondents reported paying lower prices in August, compared to 21.5 percent in July,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In August, eight of 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in August — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 31.7 41.6 26.7 +5.0 52.5
Jul 2022 41.5 37.0 21.5 +20.0 60.0
Jun 2022 65.2 26.5 8.3 +56.9 78.5
May 2022 70.2 24.2 5.6 +64.6 82.2

Backlog of Orders*

ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 53 percent in August, a 1.7-percentage point increase compared to the 51.3 percent reported in July, indicating order backlogs expanded for the 26th straight month. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three — Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded their order backlogs. “Backlogs expanded in August at a faster rate as new order levels recovered, and production expanded minimally in the period. A slowing in price increases is a positive for future new orders growth and backlogs expansion,” says Fiore.

Seven industries reported growth in order backlogs in August, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The four industries reporting lower backlogs in August are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in backlogs of orders in August as compared to July.

Backlog of Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 93 24.6 56.7 18.7 +5.9 53.0
Jul 2022 92 26.6 49.4 24.0 +2.6 51.3
Jun 2022 93 25.6 55.3 19.1 +6.5 53.2
May 2022 91 31.6 54.3 14.1 +17.5 58.7

New Export Orders*

ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 49.4 percent in August, 3.2 percentage points below the July reading of 52.6 percent. “The New Export Orders Index contracted in August after being in expansionary territory for 25 consecutive months. Weakness in European economies and China still catching up after COVID-19 lockdowns continue to constrain new export orders and impact the index number. Of the six big industry sectors, two — Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded,” says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in new export orders in August: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in August — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Machinery. Eight industries reported no change in exports in August as compared to July.

New Export Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 75 9.9 79.0 11.1 -1.2 49.4
Jul 2022 73 16.6 72.1 11.3 +5.3 52.6
Jun 2022 72 12.3 76.8 10.9 +1.4 50.7
May 2022 73 14.6 76.6 8.8 +5.8 52.9

Imports*

ISM®’s Imports Index registered 52.5 percent in August, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to July’s figure of 54.4 percent. “Imports grew in August despite port congestion on the East Coast and containers not moving in the most efficient manner,” says Fiore.

The eight industries reporting growth in imports in August — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Five industries reported lower volumes of imports in August: Wood Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Imports % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Aug 2022 83 15.6 73.8 10.6 +5.0 52.5
Jul 2022 85 19.6 69.5 10.9 +8.7 54.4
Jun 2022 84 14.4 72.5 13.1 +1.3 50.7
May 2022 85 13.4 70.6 16.0 -2.6 48.7
*The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in August was 180 days, a decrease of three days compared to July. Average lead time in August for Production Materials was 96 days, a decrease of four days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased by five days, to 46 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital Expenditures Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Aug 2022 18 5 6 11 29 31 180
Jul 2022 14 3 10 13 29 31 183
Jun 2022 15 6 7 9 31 32 186
May 2022 17 5 8 10 30 30 178

Percent Reporting

Production Materials Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Aug 2022 7 22 24 25 15 7 96
Jul 2022 8 21 21 28 13 9 100
Jun 2022 8 19 23 25 18 7 100
May 2022 9 21 21 26 15 8 99

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Aug 2022 26 34 21 14 5 0 46
Jul 2022 22 36 21 15 5 1 51
Jun 2022 25 39 19 12 5 0 44
May 2022 27 35 19 12 6 1 48

About This Report


DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation


The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest manufacturing subsectors are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Beginning in February 2018 with January 2018 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content


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About Institute for Supply Management®


Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM® Advance Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®’s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring September 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, October 3, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

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ISM®'s Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital Report On Business® gather data monthly through surveys of supply management professionals participating in the Business Survey Committee. The make-up of this committee is determined by industry category and is based on each industry's contribution to Gross Domestic Product.

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Please note that you or the organization you represent may not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index or any portion of the ISM® Report On Business® – Manufacturing (PMI®), Services (PMI®) and Hospital (PMI) content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting us in writing at:

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